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Why Election Predictions About Market Crashes Are Almost Always Wrong

A few days before the 2020 election Trump told us our 401(k)s would crash if Biden was elected. Biden was elected and the S&P 500 is up 79% since that prediction, breaking its all time record high over 40 times this year alone.

Now, a few days before the 2024 election he’s saying if Harris is elected we are in for another great depression. Is that true? No, it is not.

I always see financial pundits making dramatic predictions about future crashes. When I get asked about them, I ask back “how accurate have their predictions been in the past?” Generally, not accurate at all. These predictions by Trump should be treated the same way. He was dead wrong about 401k crashes and I personally am betting all of my money he’s wrong about this too. I’ll be continuing to invest early and often, buying and holding index funds regardless of who is elected president.

I don’t talk about my own politics much, but I’m a registered independent and I’m voting for Harris. I think we’re all intimately familiar with what both candidates are about so I’ll spare you the pitch. But if you want the best for the economy, I’d offer that 23 Nobel Prize-winning economists and this one instagram influencer all think Harris will be vastly superior for the economy.

Regardless of your politics, please get out there and vote! It’s fun! You get to fill in bubbles. You’re allowed to leave anything blank you don’t feel like voting on. I personally have a take home ballot that I’m filling out, then I drop at my polling place. I get to vote in the privacy and comfort of my own home, then dropping off the ballot takes around 30 seconds on my way to work. The two parties are not the same. Your vote matters. Who wins matters. Please do me a favor and vote! 🙂

As always, reminding you to build wealth by following the two PFC rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often.

-Jeremy

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Jeremy Circle

Hi, I’m Jeremy! I retired at 36 and currently have a net worth of over $4 million. 

Personal Finance Club is here to give simple, unbiased information on how to win with money and become a multi-millionaire!