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Why no one can predict which stocks will go up

Don’t confuse these things. It’s very easy to look backwards and say “wow, NVIDIA really went up a lot”. But that is NOT the same thing as knowing that NVIDIA will go up a lot in the future. Lots of influencers, content creators, analysts, speculators, etc like to SAY they know what will happen in the future. It’s a really enticing pitch. “Hey, this stock is the next Amazon” or “The AI revolution is coming so invest in this stock.” But I can’t stress this enough: These speculators absolutely do not know what is coming next. No one knows the future. Study after study after study confirm that stock pickers are no better than random at picking stocks that will outperform the market going forward.

So what do you do? Instead of playing the guessing game, you can guarantee your own victory by buying ALL the stocks. If you own ALL the companies, you’ll collect the benefit of their growth, innovation, and profits. All the short term volatility we hear about is just noise introduced by short term speculators. That’s why those who want to build serious wealth over their careers should be buying and holding index funds, not guessing at picking stocks.

As always, reminding you to build wealth by following the two PFC rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often.

-Jeremy

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Jeremy Circle

Hi, I’m Jeremy! I retired at 36 and currently have a net worth of over $4 million. 

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