These are historic times. Just a week ago, incumbent president Joe Biden was all but a lock to be his party’s nominee to run for his second term as president. But since then gambler’s on the prediction market predictit.org have dropped his chances from 86% to 28%. Vice President Kamala Harris is now the most likely democratic party nominee at 46%.
But this market is jumping around faster than GameStop options right now. As I’m typing this I’m clicking refresh to see where we’re at, so by the time you’re reading it, you may want to head over to predictit.org (search for 2024 Democratic presidential nomination) to see the live odds.
What will happen?! Nobody knows. I think most humans are much worse at predicting things than we would like to believe. I’ve made a few small ($20) prediction market bets and I seem to lose every time, so I wouldn’t go by my guess. But it sure is interesting to watch it unfold. I just hope America comes out the winner!
As always, reminding you to build wealth by following the two PFC rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often.
-Jeremy
