I’ve been hearing a lot of sentiment lately like “everyone is saying a crash is coming”. Actually, now that I’m typing that out, I’ve been hearing a lot of that sentiment every day of my entire life.

Those are the voices of the bears on the left. But if EVERYONE knew a crash was coming the crash would already be here. But as it stands at THIS VERY moment (and every other moment) there are also bulls pulling to the right! The bulls think the market is about to go UP and they have lots of convincing reasons why that will be true.

Briefly, today, bears are saying the high interest rates, growing debt, overvaluation of the market, and tenuous political climate are going to cause the market to crash. Sounds scary, right?! But the bulls are saying the strong GDP, low unemployment, strong consumer spending, AI tech boom, and likely future rate cuts are going to cause the market to go SKY HIGH! See?! Sounds pretty promising, right?

Who is right? Let me be clear about this because I’m very confident of my answer so I’m going to put it on its own line below:

I HAVE NO IDEA.

Neither do you. Neither does anyone. The entirety of the world’s knowledge and money is participating in this tug of war, pricing in all current information and future expectations leaving the market EXACTLY where it currently is. No one knows where it’s going next. So when you think, “everyone is saying the market is going to crash”. No they’re not. You’ve just heard more bears than bulls lately. The market itself is the ground truth of what everyone thinks is about to happen.

So what do YOU do? Here’s the good news. You do nothing. Don’t participate in this guessing game of speculation. As Warren Buffett has said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Over the short term the voting game of the tug of war will go back and forth. But over the LONG term you’ll be an owner of the companies of the world and all the growth and profits that come with it. Buy and hold. Stay the course.

As always, reminding you to build wealth by following the two PFC rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often.

-Jeremy