
Over the last few days I’ve heard a lot of sentiment like “I’m going to stay out of the market until it stops falling”. And I said: “BUT HERE’S THE PROBLEM. By the time you know it has stopped falling you will have missed the recovery”.
Today was an example if that. If you were trying to “buy at the bottom”, you just missed it. The moment the news of the tariff pause broke the markets jumped. By the time any humans noticed, it was too late. (Maybe there are some algorithmic trading firms on Wall Street who try to trade within a thousandth of a second of news breaking to make a quick buck, but humans like us are unlikely to react faster).
Does this mean we’re in the clear and we have nothing but smooth 10% annual returns ahead of us? I highly doubt it. As long as President Trump is wagging his little tariff stick around at the rest of the world, I think the companies and markets of the world are going to stay nervous. We could see another huge drop if the tariffs seem like they’ll become a reality or the China game of chicken escalates. Or we could see a huge rally if wiser minds prevail and tariffs stay at bay.
What should YOU do? In short, nothing. As a buy-and-hold investor, I don’t concern myself with the panicky volatility of day traders. I’m an INVESTOR. That’s someone who buys things that pay you while you hold them and are likely to go up in value over time. I’ll collect my dividends for free while I sit on my index funds with a plan to sell a little here and there as I need the money many years from now.
As always, reminding you to build wealth by following the two PFC rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often.
-Jeremy